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One Stormy Summer, Part III: August - The Strike
“Barbenheimer” gave movie theaters the boost they needed after a disappointing early summer. As of mid-August, Barbie and Oppenheimer combined for over $2 billion in worldwide box office. Both films have serious flaws but boast standout performances and bold visual storytelling. Perhaps the most heartening aspect of the Barbenheimer phenomenon was how it felt organic. The studios didn’t orchestrate it, but online fans did. Then the talent did, including Tom Cruise, Oppenheimer star Cillian Murphy and Barbie star Margot Robbie, along with director Greta Gerwig. Given how shaky movie ticket sales have been since the pandemic, the “Barbenheimer” resurgence should be cause for celebration. However, the joy proved fleeting with the writers’ and actors’ ongoing strikes. This year marks the first time since 1960 that both the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) went on strike simultaneously. As of this writing neither union appears close to a deal with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP), representing studios and production companies. I could try to venture into a discussion of the economics behind these strikes, but that’s well outside my scope of knowledge, and there’s no shortage of analyses online. But I do know that most writers don’t make much money and, with the exception of the small percentage that are stars, neither do most actors. So if it’s a choice between creatives trying to make a better living and studio executives trying to boost profits, I’m picking the first group. As I noted in Part I, Warner Bros. CEO David Zaslav made $39 million last year. According to The Hollywood Reporter total compensation for the highest-paid Hollywood executives was more than $240 million in 2022. Former Disney CEO Bob Chapek made $24.2 million, and he did such a great job that Disney fired him and replaced him with his predecessor, Bob Iger. Any studio’s claims that the writers’ or actors’ demands are unreasonable ring hollow when CEOs, even unsuccessful ones, are paid such an obscene amount of money. In addition to their compensation both the writers’ and actors’ want to limit the role of AI behind and in front of the camera. I can only imagine how happy classic studio heads Louis B. Mayer, Jack Warner or Harry Cohn might have felt if you told them they could replace their writing staff with machines. Many scripts already seem like they were written on autopilot. AI can do wonderful things (until it becomes self-aware and rises against us of course), but creative thinking is not one of them. Director Steven Soderbergh identified another key sticking point a few weeks ago. Movie box office figures are made available to the public, so are broadcast/cable ratings. Streaming service viewership numbers only become available when the service decides to release them, which is very infrequently, and then only partially. Actors or writers get their residuals based on this data that they can’t see. Some of these residuals are comically small, but it’s no laughing matter to those receiving them. As Soderbergh explained, “There are two potential reasons that we’re not getting all of the information. One is that they’re all making a lot more money than anybody knows and that they’re willing to tell us. The other is they’re making a lot less money than anybody knows. And they don’t want Wall Street to look under the hood of this thing in any significant way because there’ll be a reckoning that will be quite unpleasant. It’s one of those two.” Hollywood has become justifiably famous for creative accounting. The writers and actors aren’t going to take the studios’ word for it that the streaming services aren’t bringing in enough viewers, nor should they. You can’t have an agreement based on different sets of facts. The streaming services need to open their books and end the secrecy. That’s the only chance of reestablishing any sort of trust. Even more concerning is the studios’ short-term thinking. While they all pay lip service to ending the strike, many of them are enjoying the increased cash flow, and as such, believe they can outlast the unions. Vox reports that “Some companies have noted that the strikes have saved them some money because they’re not spending on production and making new things. Netflix said it expected its free cash flow to increase by $1.5 billion. Warner Bros. Discovery saved $100 million. Disney said it anticipated a $3 billion production cost cut.” Deadline quoted an anonymous studio executive saying that “’The endgame is to allow things to drag on until union members start losing their apartments and losing their houses.’ Acknowledging the cold-as-ice approach, several other sources reiterated the statement. One insider called it ‘a cruel but necessary evil.’” Leaving aside how morally reprehensible it is, the “wait them out” approach has already shown its cracks. Actors play a key role in publicizing films. Red carpet premieres, talk show appearances and social media increase public awareness and interest in their films. The Hollywood Reporter cited an analyst opining that “a movie’s earnings at the box office could be hurt by as much as 15 percent because of the dramatic falloff in talent-driven publicity.” Even more disturbingly, Warner Brothers just announced its postponement of Dune: Part Two from November 2023 to March 2024. According to Deadline, “The sequel has the potential to be another Star Wars and to build out a future franchise for both Legendary (the film’s production company) and Warners, and it needs the social media power of its young cast that includes Zendaya, Timothée Chalamet, Florence Pugh and Austin Butler to do that.” MGM delayed another Zendaya film, Challengers, from September 2023 to April 2024. Sony moved Kraven the Hunter and the Ghostbusters: Afterlife sequel to 2024. So far other 2023 release dates are holding firm, but that could easily change the longer these strikes drag on. Of course, if the studios don’t move releases and the strike drags on they might not have their full 2024 slate. So it’s a loss either way. The old saying goes “A rising tide lifts all boats.” That’s not always true but the opposite sure is. As shrinking tide drags all the boats down. Hollywood has a genuine opportunity to build on “Barbenheimer” as a comeback for theatrical movie watching. But audiences are not going to return to movie theaters just for overpriced popcorn and soda. They need the movies to get them there. I don’t know who will win this battle, but the longer it continues the greater the chance we will all lose. Adam Spector September 1, 2023 Contact us: |
